The fuel model
Predicting how a wildfire will advance isn't guesswork: it's a physical simulation problem that combines several layers of data about the territory. The first is the fuel model, a classification of the vegetation type present in each area (scrubland, pine forest, dry pasture) that determines how easily it catches and how fast the fire spreads once started.
Terrain and weather conditions
Added to that layer is the terrain's topography: fire advances faster uphill than downhill, and features such as ravines or natural firebreaks can slow or channel it. Finally, there are the weather conditions at the time — wind (direction and intensity), relative humidity and temperature — which change the fire's behaviour from one hour to the next.
What the simulation model actually does
A simulation model combines these three layers to project, on a map, how a fire front would move over the coming hours if it started at a given point. The result isn't absolute certainty — a real fire always has an unpredictable element — but it is an estimate that can be used to prioritise decisions before the emergency happens.
What it's used for in practice
In practice, this serves two very concrete purposes: prioritising risk areas for prevention work (clearing, monitoring, firebreaks) where the model indicates a higher potential spread rate, and planning resource deployment — where to position assets ahead of the risk season — instead of only reacting once a fire has already broken out.
Frequently asked questions
What data does an AI model use to predict how a wildfire will spread?
It combines three layers: the fuel model (the type of vegetation in each area), the terrain's topography (slopes, ravines, natural firebreaks) and current weather conditions (wind, humidity), to project on a map how the fire front would advance over the coming hours.
What is predicting wildfire spread actually used for?
It's used to prioritise risk areas for prevention work (clearing, monitoring, firebreaks) and to plan where to position resources before fire season, not just to react once a fire has already started.
More control, less uncertainty
Discover how Comacon can help your organisation manage emergencies.